In front of Telmesomethinggirl but largely whacked before and since this term was Heaven Help Us, winner of the Coral Cup a year ago. Like the favourite, she brings Festival-winning form to the party and her form string at this intermediate distance is 12. She seems better going left-handed and with just a little ease in the ground, conditions she’ll get here.
With nine fences to go
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Monday 22 April’s Horse Racing Results
What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.
UPCOMING RACE
Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far. As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker.
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- AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time.
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- Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun.
- I don’t really fancy Irish Point, who in my view would have been better placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle even if his owner does have Teahupoo for that.
- Ballyoptic is too inconsistent to have too much faith in but there is no denying his ability.
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- Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP.
- 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle.
- Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time.
She’s the classiest mare in the entries for this race by at least seven pounds, and there’s a chance that drying ground sees Roksana re-routed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There will still be Concertista to deal with, but Honeysuckle will be more 8/11 than 11/8 on the day if she runs here. If she doesn’t, you’ll get your cash back a fortnight hence.
Southwell (AW) Tips
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 195 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners. On trainer changes, it is obvious that not all trainers are equally talented and, especially, not all trainers are equally good at finding the key to a horse in their care. A change of scenery is sometimes enough, but often it is a change of regime or some personal attention – maybe a weekly back massage or whatever – that can aid a horse’s progression. Under the conditions of the race, we can see that ‘Led’ (green blob) types have fared best.
Honeysuckle – Mares’ Hurdle – 11/8 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)
She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.
Horse Racing in the UK
Nevertheless, that’s a reservation for now, even though the pre-eminence of the same age group in the Champion Hurdle market says a fair bit about the older generations in the two-mile division currently. That leaves a trio of British-trained hopes, the word ‘hope’ used loosely. Shallwehaveonemore was beaten 26 lengths by Constitution Hill in the Tolworth but has improved a fair bit since. His best form is on decent ground so that’s a plus, and he may have been a little outpaced at Kempton last time when second in Grade 2 company. He could run quite well without challenging the podium places. If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).
Altior wins the Champion Chase
Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).
Windsor Results
Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.
Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It. If they all stand up it’s hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown. At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal. Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option. Altior, late injury scare or not, is definitely the one to beat.
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- Another personal best came via a length-and-and-a-half margin from Live In The Dream in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip at Sandown Park on the second Saturday in June.
- Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro.
- All the talk’s about Altior with less than 15 minutes left until the big race of the day.
- Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today.
- The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there!
They’re presented in race order, starting on Tuesday, Day 1… Sometimes you can spend a lot of time looking for something which, in the end, only tells you that there is probably nothing to be found. The Irish haven’t (quite) had it all their own way in the past five years at Cheltenham, and Britain’s top man – sometimes persisting in the wind – has been Nicky Henderson. Looking for correlation is difficult in what is, granted, a crowded table. And it is still more confusing when noting that comfortably Mullins’ poorest win strike rate (6.78% in 2019) produced his best ROI (+30.51%).
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Ensuring the accuracy of horse racing tips is paramount for punters seeking reliable insights. The five-timer-seeking Caius Chorister is worth throwing into the melting pot, in company with Night Of Luxury and Sheer Rocks. The evidence of that effort is that going up to six furlongs is very much the right move, and an opening British Horseracing Authority mark of 87 looks within touching distance.
Tips & Insights
His Grade I success at Naas last time was achieved with authority and we know that he can battle when needed. TOPOFTHEGAME fits the usual profile of winners in this trappy puzzle in that he is relatively lightly-raced and progressive. He has also shown form here as have 80 per cent of the winners during the past 10 years. The manner in which he travelled easily and then stayed on strongly at Sandown last time has the mark of a smart performer who is ahead of his mark. William Henry beat Topofthegameinto fourth place at Kempton in January but that fast track and a lack of pace in the race were against the selection and he should turn the tables. Mount Mews reverts to hurdles after some disappointing chase efforts and would have claims on his best form, were he to be reinvigorated by the smaller obstacles.
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- Fourthly, beware Paul Nicholls outside of handicap hurdles, and Charlie Longsdon and Noel Meade universally.
- That suits horses which are able to change gear, i.e. accelerate, late in the play.
- She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four.
- One group of runners to avoid in Grade 1 races seems to be those that ran relatively modestly or poorly last time out.
- Distinction brings solid form to the table as well and looks the most obvious danger on paper.
The Mullins third string is an unbeaten-in-one ‘could be anything’ type called Bring On The Night. A progressive three-year-old when trained in France by Andre Fabre, it was nigh on two years thereafter that he made his timber debut at Naas. Impressive he was, too, coming right away from a large field of maidens in spite of bungling the final flight. It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then. Willie was quite bullish about his ability in recent stable tour chat but I thought he might have gone Ballymore rather than here.
- Rex came with the proverbial wet sail there, weaving through tiring rivals up the run in to present the mare on the line, a style which has proven more difficult to pull off in smaller field, more steadily run contests since.
- In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank.
- High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- The eight-year-old’s owner, Patricia Pugh, is curator at the Horseracing Museum in Newmarket but in Altior, the Latin for higher, she has a priceless artefact, the star exhibit, a Champion who can rule this division for a couple of years yet.
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Tiger Roll notches his third Festival win
Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday. Since the early days, horse racing has grown from royal entertainment into big business. For most bookies, it remains their bread and butter, alongside football and tennis as the most popularly wagered sports. So you’ve done the legwork, found the perfect horse racing bookmaker, but now what? Well, it’s time to lay down a bet, and it really couldn’t be easier.
Back From Dubai had some Class 6 questions to answer but this 0-55 required very little winning. 9/4 was hardly rock n’ roll but he was against quantity rather than quality opposition, even allowing for the grade. Another deep race with plenty of experienced campaigners making their seasonal returns. Whilst the race is open on paper, it may be worth chancing WINDSOR AVENUE.
If you are scanning a race, spot a horse making its handicap debut (or even its second run in a handicap), and you don’t make a note to look a tad more closely at said runner, more fool you. Draw and run style seem to be fairly well subsumed into market prices these days; at least into starting price market prices. That leaves an opportunity on earlier shows to snaffle some value. But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.
Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today. £/€10 min stake on Casino slots within 30 days of registration. Max bonus 200 Free Spins on selected games credited Bolts Up Daily within 48 hours. Now, no betting system is perfect, and some may prove to be more hype than substance, but there are three that are worth taking an in-depth look at specifically.